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During affective priming, perception of an emotional “prime stimulus” influences the reaction time to the subsequent emotional “target stimulus”. If prime and target have the same valence (congruent trials), reactions to the target are faster than if prime and target have different valences (incongruent trials). Bem introduced a backward priming paradigm in 2011, where first the target was presented and then the prime after the response. Similar to the classical affective forward priming effects, he found faster reaction times in congruent compared to incongruent trials, and interpreted these results as evidence supporting precognition. In the present exploratory study, while measuring EEG, we combined a forward priming paradigm with a related backward priming paradigm, following Bem’s study. We analysed the EEG data on a group level (ERPs) and on an individual level (single participants, applying artificial neural networks). We found significantly faster reaction times for congruent compared to incongruent trials in the forward priming experiment (p = 0.0004) but no statistically significant differences in the backward priming experiment (p = 0.12). We also found significant differences in ERP amplitude in the forward priming congruent vs incongruent conditions (P8 electrode: p = 0.0002). Backward priming results show weaker, shorter, and less significant differences between congruent and incongruent trials, with maxima at electrodes P7, P3, CP5, and CP1. The neural network results were very variable across participants in both the backward and forward priming and on average, the accuracy results were at chance level for both the forward priming as well as the backward priming. Our results replicate behavioural findings and extend the EEG findings for forward priming. We did not replicate Bem’s backward priming results. These exploratory EEG results are weak, however they give a good starting point for future studies.
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This metascientific project studied the replicability of Bem Experiment 1, which had claimed a precognitive effect, i.e., the ability to successfully guess the outcome of future random events (Bem. J Pers Soc Psychol. 2011;100: 407−25). The use of advanced methodologies—based on the advanced meta-experimental protocol (AMP) and transparent psi project (TPP) procedures—reduced the risk of false discoveries as a function of (i) confirmation bias, (ii) non-transparency, and (iii) intrinsic measurement bias. The combined AMP-TPP test strategy performed three replication studies with a total of 26,483 participants resulting in N = 420,472 critical trials. Study 1 failed to replicate the precognitive effect. An exploratory analysis of Study 1 suggested an effect in the opposite direction than was originally predicted (49.48% ± 0.26 SE; N = 37,836). Study 2 confirmed this exploratory result using a high-powered replication design (49.65% ± 0.14 SE; p = 0.013; N = 127,000). Study 3 was unable to replicate the result from Study 2 (50.07% ± 0.11 SE; p = 0.496; N = 217,800). The results of Study 2 represent a rare example in psi research of the successful replication of an exploratory result using a confirmatory protocol. The source of the one-time confirmed anomalous result in Study 2 remains to be identified. This result presents either (i) a psi-derived anomaly that defies known physical laws, or (ii) a method-derived anomaly, e.g., a false-positive statistical finding. Using conventional standards, based on the lack of replicability in Study 3 and absence of an accepted scientific theory, the second scenario appears more plausible. This AMP-TPP metascientific project demonstrated the use of advanced controls for assessing the reliability of the employed scientific process. This project shows how rigor-enhancing test strategies can improve the reliability, not only of psi research, but any type of weak-effects experiments, including in psychology.
Erkunden
Team
- Wittmann (2)
Eintragsart
Sprache
- Englisch (2)
Thema
- Parapsychology
- Behavior (1)
- Computer imaging (1)
- Computer software (1)
- Electroencephalography (1)
- Event-related potentials (1)
- Internet (1)
- Metaanalysis (1)
- Neural networks (1)
- Priming (psychology) (1)
- Quantum mechanics (1)
- Reaction time (1)
- Replication studies (1)
- Research design (1)
- Semantics (1)